Achieve Investment Group

Understanding Real Estate Market Cycles

As the financial markets continue to be uncertain, investors are trying to predict where the economy is headed. While even the savviest investors cannot forecast the market, it is essential to understand demand drivers impacting the economy and how that could affect real estate fundamentals. In addition, individual investors may consider implementing various strategies to increase returns and mitigate risk during these specific timeframes. Since real estate investing may be new to some investors, we will explain how real estate market cycles work, why they are critical to understanding, and how they are affected by such factors as interest rates, economic vitality, and government subsidies. Rental behavior within each of the phases is described by Dr. Mueller, who uses varying Market Levels ranging from 1 to 16. Equilibrium is reached at Market Level 11, where demand growth equals supply growth – the sweet spot. The equilibrium Market Level 11 is also the peak occupancy level. The four phases of market cycles: Phase 1 – Recovery – Declining Vacancy, No New Construction 1-3 Negative Rental Growth 4-6 Below Inflation Rental Growth Phase 2 – Expansion – Declining Vacancy, New Construction 6-8 Rents Rise Rapidly Toward New Construction Levels 8-11 High Rent Growth in Tight Market Phase 3 – Hypersupply – Increasing Vacancy, New Construction 11-14 Rent Growth Positive But Declining Phase 4 – Recession – Increasing Vacancy, More Completions 14-16, then back to 1: Below Inflation, Negative Rent Growth Where and how to invest during this economic downturn? Dr. Mueller’s Real Estate Market Cycle Monitor has been tracking each primary commercial real estate sector since 1990. He presents his nationally acclaimed “Real Estate Market Cycles” report. His analysis helps investors identify where various markets are in the four phases of the real estate cycle and ultimately decide where and when to invest in this economic downturn.   WATCH THE FULL WEBINAR Join our investor list to access our current and upcoming investment opportunities.

What To Consider Before Investing in Multifamily Real Estate

Multifamily Real Estate investing is becoming increasingly popular, with investors clamoring to find a property multiple for renting a single-family home. The reason for this excitement is that multifamily properties offer an attractive investment that combines solid returns with lower levels of volatility than single-family homes and other real estate asset classes. What is a Multifamily Property? Multifamily properties can be defined as a building with more than one unit. The most common type of multifamily property is the apartment complex, but there are other types of multifamily properties such as condominiums, townhouses, and even student housing. Multifamily properties can be found in any market and can be either owner-occupied or rented out to tenants. They appeal to investors because they provide a stable income stream through monthly rent payments and also offer tax benefits for some forms of investment real estate. Multifamily properties are often owned by a single investor or by a partnership of two or more investors. These investors hire a property manager to oversee day-to-day operations, including tenant screening and maintenance requests. Pros and cons of multifamily investing Investing in multifamily properties can offer many advantages. Low startup costs – The cost to purchase a multifamily property is significantly lower than the cost of buying a single-family home. And once you’ve purchased your first property, the cost of acquiring additional units can be spread over several years as you build your portfolio. Low vacancy rates – The vacancy rate for multifamily properties is typically between 4% and 5%, according to Real Capital Analytics (RCA) industry experts. This is much lower than the vacancy rate for single-family homes, ranging from 10% to 30% during economic downturns. Rental income. Your rental income will be based on the rents you charge your tenants, which can vary depending on the location and type of property you own. For example, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in San Francisco is $3,400 per month, according to Zumper’s National Rent Report for January 2017. In contrast, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Detroit is just $700 per month. Multifamily properties provide diversification. Since most multifamily properties have multiple units, they provide some level of diversification by spreading risk around several units rather than relying on one property alone for income. So, for example, if one unit becomes vacant due to a tenant moving out or being evicted, this won’t necessarily cause any issues with the other units in the building because they’re all covered by separate leases anyway (at least until they expire). Low correlation to stocks and bonds. Multifamily properties are less correlated with stocks and bonds than other real estate investments because they provide income rather than capital appreciation — although they also offer capital appreciation. In addition, they tend to be less correlated with the stock market than other real estate investments like office buildings or industrial properties because they tend to be located closer to where people live and work — this means higher demand for housing during times when people want to live closer to their jobs and vice versa. Lower maintenance: Less maintenance than single-family homes or retail spaces. Apartments have fewer repairs and lower turnover than single-family homes and retail space (both of which require repairs and cleaning). Risks of Multifamily Investment Properties Here are three of the most significant risks to look out for when considering a multifamily property: Tenant turnover rate: Tenant turnover rate refers to how often tenants move out of their units in a given period (typically one year). A high tenant turnover rate means that many of your tenants will be moving out soon — which means more vacancies and less income from those units while re-renting — and more work. Market risk. The market can be volatile and unpredictable, so you could lose money on your investment if the economy turns south or if a large amount of new supply in your area drives down rents. Construction risk. This is a big one! For example, suppose you’re buying an older property and need to renovate it or add amenities to attract tenants. In that case, you could lose tens of thousands of dollars if you don’t get the job done correctly or on time — or worse yet if something goes wrong during construction and causes damage to the property or other units in the building. Property Management for Multifamily Properties When it comes to managing these types of properties, there are two options: self-manage or hire a property manager. Self-managing your assets means doing everything yourself — from collecting rents and paying bills on time to fixing leaks in the bathroom tubs and repairing broken appliances. If this sounds like something you want to do on top of all your other responsibilities (like running your business), then self-managing might be the right choice for you.  Property management. You will need a property manager to handle everything from maintenance issues to tenant screening. If you cannot hire a professional manager, you’ll have to spend time handling these tasks yourself. This will take away from your time as an investor and could cause problems down the road if you don’t have enough time or experience managing tenants. Final Thought In the end, multifamily real estate investing is not something that every person or company should attempt. It is a highly specialized field with unique challenges and considerations. However, suppose you’re interested in embarking on this investment strategy or gaining a better understanding of the landscape. In that case, you should have the knowledge you need to succeed. With that in mind, begin your research today to make an informed decision in the future. To learn more about our current passive investment opportunities, please Schedule an investor introductory session

As Interest Rates Climb, What happens to Rental Property’s Bottom Line?

2022 has brought about some of the highest rates from the Fed in the past 40 years. Which brings about many questions for real estate investors. Will this push us into a recession? What will this mean for the housing market, mortgage rates, and rental investments? To start; as rates increase it’s important to bear in mind that investment loan rates will always be higher than a traditional mortgage to begin with. As a general rule of thumb, you can expect investment loan rates to be approximately 0.50% to 0.75% higher than a primary mortgage rate. In our current market, both home prices AND financing prices are on the rise simultaneously. Which means that people aren’t just being pushed into a less expensive home, some are pushed out of purchasing a home altogether. So, what do they do? They continue renting. Rental markets and the home purchase market are very tightly linked. Therefore, we can determine based on historical data in similar market climates, the coming years will have a large and increasing market of renters. Making having a real estate investment a wise one indeed. The demand for housing will remain high and along with that, high rent prices. This recent Zillow report shows how increased mortgage rates correlate with average rents, moving from $1,600 per month in February 2022 to $2,000 in August 2022. Source: Zillow Economic Research So what does this mean for Rental Property Owners or those involved as passive Real Estate Investors? The bottom line is that when the Federal Reserve interest rates go up, it can actually be a very good thing for real estate investors, particularly multi-family. The first reason is that the market for multifamily apartments will increase as many people will either not qualify or cannot afford a mortgage on a primary residence. The standards for lending go up significantly during this climate of rates increasing. Mortgage lenders who previously pre-qualified home shoppers will have to recalculate, often leaving a lower number of qualified home buyers. The second thing to consider is that while the housing market boom appears to have stabilized, the prices of homes remain at historic highs. Coupling that with the rising interest rates results in rental costs being favored over a mortgage payment. Therefore indicating that real estate investments will continue to perform well. Individuals and families now postponing house hunting still need a place to live. The market for tenants now looking for a place to rent is bigger and will expectedly climb. When you piece together what a rising Federal Reserve rate does to the housing market and mortgage rates- it may signal a great opportunity for potential investors to dip their toe into the real estate investment market or for those already in the game to consider expanding their holdings. The foreseeable future holds a new stream of tenants and a strong future for real estate investment. Historically real estate has always been a strong hedge against inflation. To learn more about our current passive investment opportunities, please Schedule an investor introductory session